FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE – 15 OCTOBER 2018

IWCC Short-Term Forecasts for Copper

The International Wrought Copper Council (IWCC) has completed its latest six monthly review of the copper market and has finalised its forecasts for copper supply and demand.

The forecasts suggest that in 2018 copper mine production might be 20.16 million tonnes. In 2019 mine output is expected to decrease to 19.97 million tonnes. Refined copper production in 2018 is forecast to be 23.6 million tonnes. For 2019, refined copper production is forecast to be 24.28 million tonnes.

Demand for refined copper in the EU-28 in 2018 is forecast to be 3.27 million tonnes, up 3.0% compared with 2017. A further increase of 0.3% is expected for 2019 when refined copper demand might be 3.28 million tonnes.

For China, in 2018 the IWCC now expects reported (or real) demand for refined copper to increase by 4.7% to 11.72 million tonnes.   For 2019, the forecasts currently suggest reported demand in China might be 12.03 million tonnes, up 2.7% compared with 2018.

The latest forecasts for Japan suggest that refined copper demand in 2018 might increase by 4.6% to 1.044 million tonnes, with a further increase of 0.8% expected for 2019 taking demand in that year to an expected 1.052 million tonnes.

For the USA the IWCC expects demand for refined copper to increase by 2.8% in 2018 and by a further 2.2% in 2019, taking demand to a possible 1.860 million tonnes.

Taking these and other changes into account, global reported refined copper demand in 2018 is expected to increase by 3.0% to 23.849 million tonnes. For 2019 the forecasts suggest that refined copper demand might be increased by a further 2.5% to 24.445 million tonnes.

Some of the increase in refined copper demand in 2018 may be attributed to the shortage of high-grade scrap which is used by the fabricators as direct-feed.

The latest IWCC forecasts suggest that for 2018 and 2019 the refined copper market might be in a small statistical deficit in each year.

For further information please contact Mark Loveitt: iwcc@coppercouncil.org