IWCC Forecasts for the Supply and Demand of Unwrought Copper – Final
The forecasts for the supply and demand of unwrought copper are given in the pdf file that can be downloaded here.
Please note the following:
The forecasts for the supply of copper (mine and refined, Tables 2 and 3 respectively) have been prepared in conjunction with ICSG, supplemented by additional information provided to IWCC, in particular for China. China data have been provided by BLC.
The demand forecasts (Table 4) for some countries have been adjusted since the demand conference calls on 22 & 23 April. The adjustments take into account comments made during the demand conference call together with additional information. The forecasts now suggest that demand in 2020 for refined copper might decline by 5.4%. The decline in demand for refined copper in China might decrease by 2.8% in 2020. The decline in all other countries is estimated to be 8.1%. For 2021 demand for refined copper might increase in all countries and regions. It should be noted that demand for refined copper in 2020 is higher than might be expected due to the shortage of scrap for direct melt by fabricators.
Secondary refined copper production, line 4f in the Summary (Table 1), is now on a new basis; this eliminates possible double counting in China. The historic data for secondary refined copper production (2017, 2018 & 2019) and current forecasts (columns 13 & 15) are all on the new basis. This means, for example, that the decline of 15.0% in secondary refined production expected for 2020 is correct when compared with the 2019 outcome.
Likewise, for SXEW production, lines 1b & 4b in the Summary (Table 1).
The downward adjustments for supply disruption in the latest forecast for 2020 (Column 13) for mine and refined production is 800kt. This is a higher value than would normally be the case at this time of year. However, it takes into account possible further disruptions to supply due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which are considered to be additional to the ‘usual’ supply side related disruptions. The downward adjustments in the forecast for 2021 are retained at 1,000kt. It should be noted that any change to the adjustment number is directly reflected in the statistical balance. For example, if the 2020 adjustment of 800kt for refined copper was to be changed to 600kt, this would increase the expected statistical balance in 2020 by 200kt.
The Statistical Balance, line 7 in the Summary (Table 1), indicates that after taking into account the downward adjustments the refined copper market might have a statistical surplus of 282kt in 2020 and a further statistical surplus of 676kt in 2021.
The forecasts will be further reviewed in October 2020.
